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Prediction for CME (2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-23T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32145/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs. The source is an M2.4 flare from an unnumbered region on the SE limb around S10E77, which peaked at 2024-07-23T14:28Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed starting around 2024-07-23T13:34Z as rapid field line opening with an EUV wave, followed by post-eruptive arcades, in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. No CME or CME shock arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-25T23:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32152/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=950.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-07-23T17:57Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-25T23:19Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =28.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.9
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-26T15:40Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-25T03:33Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-26T05:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240723_175700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 42.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-24T04:47Z

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